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Harris leads Trump by 2 in national poll, but shows vulnerabilities with non-White voters

todayOctober 4, 2024

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A recent poll shows that Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are neck-and-neck ahead of the November election. 

According to the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll, Harris maintains a razor-thin lead of 2% over Trump in a national survey of likely voters. 

The poll shows similar results among registered voters, with Harris at 50% and Trump just a few points behind at 47%. 

TRUMP EDGES HARRIS IN NORTH CAROLINA POLL, STATE THAT HASN’T VOTER DEMOCRATIC SINCE 2008

Trump at podium

Trump delivers remarks to the press at Trump Tower in New York City. (ANGELA WEISS/AFP via Getty Images)

Notably, Trump leads Harris among independent voters who are likely to cast a ballot in November, 50% to 46%. 

Voters who intend to cast ballots early via mail or absentee ballot are much more likely to favor Harris (71%) compared to Trump (28%). 

Voters who intend to cast ballots the traditional way on Election Day break for Trump 58% to 40%. 

WISCONSIN POLL SHOWS HARRIS LEADING TRUMP BY 4, FORMER PRESIDENT AHEAD ON KEY ISSUES

Individuals intending to vote early via in-person ballot break for Trump, 50% to 48%.

A majority of respondents reported being either concerned or very concerned about the potential for voter fraud in this year’s election. Republicans (86%) and independents (55%) are much more likely to suspect the potential for voter fraud compared to Democrats (33%). 

Trump leads Harris among white voters, 53% to 45%. Harris leads Trump among non-white voters (60% to 39%) but still lags behind the support shown for Biden among non-white voters (71%).

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Harris waving

Harris greets supporters during a campaign event at Cochise College Douglas Campus in Douglas, Arizona.  (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

A staggering gap of 34% separates men and women in this election. About 57% of men intend to vote for Trump, compared to 41% for Harris. Meanwhile, 58% of women intend to vote for Harris, compared to 40% for Trump.

The NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll was conducted from Sept. 27 through Oct. 1 and surveyed individuals via phone, text and online. 

Results for registered voters are statistically significant within ±3.5%, while results for likely voters are statistically significant within ±3.7%.

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