Montana Supreme Court ruling on Green Party candidate could spell trouble for Jon Tester, polling reveals

A new Montana ruling on a third party’s ballot presence could have negative implications for Sen. Jon Tester’s re-election efforts as he clinches on to the Democrat’s Senate majority, recent polling suggests. 

In August, the Montana Democratic Party sued Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen and the state of Montana in an effort to prevent Green Party Senate candidate Robert Barb from appearing on the November ballot.

Democrats claimed in their lawsuit that Barb’s nomination was not valid, after the third-party candidate was named the Green Party’s nominee to replace their original leading candidate who dropped out of the race in August despite winning the primary.

A district court rejected the request to deny the Green Party candidate ballot access in early September, but the Montana Democratic Party submitted a writ of supervisory control to the state’s Supreme Court against the lower court ruling. Ultimately, the Montana Supreme Court ruled to uphold the lower court’s decision on Tuesday, solidifying Barb’s name on the 2024 ballot.

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Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., arrives for the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense hearing on the “Fiscal Year 2025 Budget Request for the National Guard and Reserves,” in the Dirksen Building on Tuesday, June 18, 2024. (Tom Williams)

“MDP has not convinced us that the District Court erred in its rulings in its September 3, 2024 Order, although we reach the same result as that court under a different analysis. Since we have not concluded that the District Court is proceeding under a mistake of law, this matter is not susceptible to writ of supervisory control,” the court wrote in its 13-page decision.

“I’m pleased that the Supreme Court unanimously rejected this Hail Mary attempt to undermine Montana election law,” Jacobsen said in a statement shared with Fox News Digital following the decision. “From the start, this lawsuit was a baseless political game from Washington elites that showed complete disrespect for Montana and our election officials.”

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The effort comes just weeks after the Democratic National Committee made a similar attempt to remove Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who in 2016 received more votes than former President Donald Trump’s margin of victory in the state.

Montana Senate candidate Tim Sheehy speaks during the second day of the 2024 Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee on July 16, 2024. (Andrew Caballero-Reynolds)

Recent polling suggests that a third party presence on the November ballot could work against Tester’s re-election aspirations.

A recent AARP survey found that Sheehy led by six percentage points in a head-to-head matchup against Tester. However, Sheehy’s lead against Tester widened to eight points in a multi-candidate field that included the state’s Green Party and Libertarian candidates.

Sen. Jon Tester is seeking re-election in Montana, a state won by former President Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2020. (Samuel Corum)

Top political handicappers recently gave Sheehy an edge in the red state race that is poised to be crucial in determining which party obtains control of the chamber next year. 

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The Cook Political Report, an independent nonpartisan elections’ handicapper, recently shifted the race from “toss-up” to “lean Republican,” while Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics moved the race to “leans Republican.”